I used the stats for the 1941 season, which I got from Baseball Reference. I think I read somewhere that 1941 is close to the all-time baseball averages so it seems like a good baseline for determining the likelihood of specific results.
Determining At Bat Results
For each at bat, I roll 3D6s. I read them sequentially instead of adding them. So a roll of 3, 6, and 1 is 361 rather than 10.
Here is how I read the rolls.
- Batting - the hitter is out on a 1-3 and reaches base on a 4-6
- This roll determines either how the hitter got out or got on base:
- Out - Strikeout on a 1-2, ground out on 3-4, and fly out on 5-6
- On Base - Walk on 1-2, single on 3-5, and extra base hit on 6
- This is only used if there is an extra base hit. The hitter gets a double on a 1-3, triple on a 4, and a home run on 5-6
You may notice that there is a 50% chance of reaching base, which is a bit high. There is a reason for that, which I will explain below.
Player Stats
I rated the hitters for batting ability, power, and speed. Each is rated on an A, B, or C scale, with A being the highest. A ratings get bonuses to rolls while C's get penalties. Pitchers are also rated, with A reducing and C improving the batter's rolls.
Game Length
To speed up playing time, I decided to apply an idea I mentioned previously. I had noticed that most innings had ended quickly, with none or one batter reaching base. Then there were a few innings where there was a rally, with multiple players reaching base.
With this is mind, I decided I would only play out the innings with rallies. I arbitrarily decided that each team would have 3 potential rallies per game, so I would only play 3 innings.
This is why I bumped up the chance of reaching base to 50%. The idea is that in those rally innings, either the pitchers slump off a bit or else the batters get into a groove and do better than average. This is offset by those innings where not much happens.
Because some innings don't get played, I decided to randomly determine which batter starts the inning.
Sample Game
I decided to try out the rules using a couple of teams from the 1920s. The 1927 New York Yankees visited the 1929 Philadelphia Athletics, both Word Series winners.
Early in the game, Mickey Cochrane singled, reach third on a double by by Jimmie Foxx, then scored on a sacrifice fly by Al Simmons, giving the A's a 1-0 lead. In the middle innings, Babe Ruth homered then a sacrifice fly drove in another run after three walks.
The Babe homers |
Now the Yanks led 2-1. The Yankees threatened late in the game but two strikeouts ended the threat. Then the A's went down quickly to end the game.
OK, that was an enjoyable and realistic game.
Ultra Quick Play
My rules led to a quick game (maybe 10 minutes or so), but I realize that it will still be a bit too long for a season. I think I'll play out one game per series, and then use other rules to generate scores for the remaining games.
I took an idea from Pen & Paper Baseball. I will play one at bat per inning and play 3 innings. I will generate team ratings, akin to the player ratings. If the batter gets a walk or single, then the team scores 1 run. A double = 2 runs, a triple = 3 runs, and a homer = 4 runs.
Using these ultra quick rules, I finished the series. The Yankees won the second game 3-0 then the A's won the finale 3-2 in extra innings.
Evaluation
So far, these rules seem to work OK. I'll have to test them some more.
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